Late summer and early fall Bay Area real estate sales data is a strong indicator of the direction that the overall housing market will be heading over the next couple of years. The period from August through September is the last big selling season of the year before things slow down during the winter.
Santa Clara County
In August in Santa Clara County, the median sale price for a single-family-home was $1,194,000, which was down 7.6 percent from August of 2018, when it was $1,192,500, according to data from Compass.
For condominiums in Santa Clara County, the median sale price in August of this year was $838,575, which was down 10.6 percent from $937,500 at this time last year.
Within Santa Clara County, the town with the most expensive homes was Los Altos Hills, where the median sale price is $4,205,000. This is down 12 percent from last year, when the median sale price was $4,800,000. This drop underscores what many realtors have said about the luxury home market being impacted more than homes that are on the lower end of the pricing scale in the Bay Area.
For example, in San Jose, this month the median single-family home price was $1,198,000 compared to $1,148,000 at this time last year, according to data from Movoto.com.
While Santa Clara County’s robust job market continues to bolster the housing market, the high cost of living and home prices are causing drag on overall sales.
The real estate forecast for Santa Clara County, according the real estate site First Tuesday, is that sales volumes will continue to decrease for the rest of this year. In addition, it’s forecasted that prices will continue to decline and then finally bottom out in 2021. Then, it’s expected there will be a mini-boom by 2022.
San Mateo County
In San Mateo County, the median price for a single-family-home in August was $1,544,000. This was up slightly from where it was in August of 2018 at $1,500,000, according to Compass.
August condominium sales in San Mateo County were also up slightly from where they were last year. The median condo sales price this year was $1,028,000, up 14.2 percent from where it was last year at $900,000, according to Mary Pope-Handy.
In August, Atherton had the highest median sale price in San Mateo County at $6,500,000. This was down only slightly from last year, when the median sale price was $6,700,000.
At the lower end of the range in San Mateo County, San Carlos homes also held their value compared to last year. The median sale price this year was $1,982,500, which was up from $1,950,000 at the same time last year.
San Francisco
In San Francisco, the median single-family home sales price in August was $1,590,00. This was up slightly from August of last year, when it was $1,538,000.
The median sales price for condos in San Francisco was up 4.2 percent over August of last year, from $1,200,000 to $1,250,000.
While San Francisco has enjoyed a continual real estate boom thanks in part to the many San Francisco-based tech companies that went public this year, real estate experts forecast that even San Francisco will not be shielded from an upcoming downturn.
According to First Tuesday, rising mortgage rates and the extremely limited supply of housing in San Francisco is limiting the real estate market. Experts forecast that San Francisco home prices will continue to cool for the remainder of this year. In addition, the expected recession will impact San Francisco real estate just as it will the entire state of California.
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